Polysilicon transactions temporarily on hold, module prices mixed [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Oct. 20:

Silicon Metal

Prices

Silicon metal prices were largely range-bound with a slight bearish bias last Friday. SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal contract closed lower at 8,430 yuan/mt on Friday. Downstream silicon consumers mainly made purchases based on demand at low prices.

Production

The operating rate of silicon metal plants in Xinjiang continued to rise, and the national silicon metal supply maintained an increase.

Inventory

Social inventory: SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions stood at 562,000 mt on Oct. 16, up 17,000 mt WoW. This included 120,000 mt in social ordinary warehouses, flat WoW, and 442,000 mt in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), up 17,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Prices

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 50.6-55 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 52.69 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 50-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were temporarily stable over the weekend. As downstream crystal pulling plants had built up sufficient raw material inventories earlier, market transactions were limited, with some small plants supplementing orders in small quantities. Discussions for the new round of order signing are expected to begin soon, and the market is watching for follow-up results from last week's meeting.

Production

Polysilicon production in October is estimated at around 133,500 mt, an increase MoM from September, exceeding previous market expectations. Production in south-west China is expected to see significant cuts in November, and output is projected to decline.

Inventory

Polysilicon inventory has been on a rising trend recently, as the purchasing pace of crystal pulling plants has slowed. In the short term, polysilicon production may still exceed demand, leading to relatively high inventory pressure.

Module

Prices

Domestic module enterprises saw mixed price changes last week. Prices for distributed modules in China fell again, with the 210R version seeing the largest drop. However, 210 module prices rose rapidly due to tight domestic supply. Mainstream quotations for the remainder of October are expected to rise above 0.7 yuan/W. For centralized projects, recent transactions remained scarce, as the mechanism electricity prices in many provinces have not been announced yet, limiting project growth. Only projects in Yunnan performed relatively well. Short-term centralized transactions are not expected to see a significant increase. Current quotations for distributed high-efficiency Topcon modules are 0.673 yuan/W (183), 0.681 yuan/W (210R), and 0.684 yuan/W (210N), while centralized high-efficiency Topcon modules are quoted at 0.66 yuan/W (182/183) and 0.68 yuan/W (210N).

Production

Module enterprise operating rates have remained largely stable recently, though the market operating rate has dipped slightly compared to the beginning of the month. Poor orders continue to keep the willingness for subsequent production cuts relatively high.

Inventory

Weekly inventory: Low-priced module shipments increased market trading volume compared to the previous period, leading to slight destocking.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic prices are 58,000-63,000 yuan/mt for inner-layer sand, 25,000-30,000 yuan/mt for middle-layer sand, and 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt for outer-layer sand. Recently, high-priced domestic high-purity quartz sand saw a downward adjustment, with the mainstream trading center shifting lower. Poor demand coupled with a significant increase in supply resulted in a clear supply-demand imbalance, driving prices down. Further downside room is expected.

Production

Domestic sand producers are currently operating at high rates, but amid the supply surplus, operations are expected to slow down after raw materials on hand are consumed.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory continued to accumulate, with weak purchasing sentiment on the demand side.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: Quotes for 3.2mm single-layer coating PV glass were 19.5-21 yuan/m², with stable prices.

3.2mm double-layer coating: Quotes for 3.2mm double-layer coating PV glass were 20.5-22 yuan/m², with stable prices.

2.0mm single-layer coating: Quotes for 2.0mm single-layer coating PV glass were 12.6-13.8 yuan/m². Recently, domestic glass trading volume declined significantly, with additional charges for some 210-type glass falling below 1 yuan/m². Mainstream transactions converged toward 13.5 yuan/m², and trading centers for other types also edged lower.

2.0mm double-layer coating: Quotes for 2.0mm double-layer coating PV glass were 13.6-14.8 yuan/m², with prices declining.

Production

Domestic glass production growth is expected to slow down, as weak Q4 market expectations led to a slowdown in new capacity plans.

Inventory

This week, domestic PV glass inventory levels rose again, and are expected to reach over 25 days by month-end.